As one prepares to fire England to Nations League glory after lifting the World Cup’s Golden Boot during the summer and the other begins the rehabilitation process for a long-term injury that may well prove to be the end of his Arsenal career, this past week has served as a poignant reminder of how Harry Kane and Danny Welbeck’s fortunes have been loosely intertwined since summer 2014, steadily moving in opposite directions.
Having shown his potency as a wide forward during three full seasons in the Manchester United first team, Welbeck’s sudden availability triggered by the appointment of Louis van Gaal saw Mauricio Pochettino recognise the 42-cap attacker as a potential solution to Tottenham Hotspur’s desperate search for a dependable scorer, amid Roberto Soldado and Emmanuel Adebayor’s seemingly eternal drought in front of goal.
As it turned out, Pochettino, only just arriving from Southampton, already had one at the club – but it would take another three months for Kane to score his first Premier League goal for the Argentine, and another week after that for his first top-flight start. Rather, during the dying embers of the new Tottenham gaffer’s inaugural transfer window, the predominant portion of Pochettino’s offensive hopes were placed in getting a last-minute loan deal for Welbeck over the line. The forward himself was said to be keen on a move to White Hart Lane.
But the switch never materialised and Welbeck ended up joining the Gunners, a move that has unfortunately seen his career go in reverse, or at the very least stand still.
Despite declaring his ambitions to play as a centre-forward prior to leaving Old Trafford, he could never quite dislodge Olivier Giroud (and subsequently Alexis Sanchez, Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubaemyang) to the extent that less than half of Welbeck’s appearances for Arsenal – 42% in fact – have been as the main striker.
Serious injuries have played their part too, Welbeck’s fluctuating availability obliging him to accept whatever game-time he received, regardless of position.
The consequences for Pochettino, meanwhile, could have been even more severe. After the Argentine had lost four of his first nine Premier League games in charge of the north Londoners, winning just three and also failing to beat Partizan and Besiktas in the Europa League, there were serious doubts over how much patience Daniel Levy would grant the former Saints gaffer.
He’d already passed through two managers in the space of six months, and before that had controversially elected against renewing Harry Redknapp’s contract despite him leading Spurs to fourth place.
But out of the looming despair which climaxed towards the end of what would have been a disappointing draw against lowly Aston Villa, pure desperation produced a new hero. Amid yet another toothless evening for Soldado and Adebayor, a 21-year-old Kane was flung on and somehow ended taking up a stoppage time free kick on the edge of the penalty area.
It deflected off the wall and flew past Brad Guzan to seal a 2-1, avert a full-blown crisis and announce Kane to the world. 150 Tottenham goals and one World Cup later, Kane is revered as arguably the best centre-forward in the business – even if he’s started this season in sluggish mood.
And it makes you wonder how many Kanes are out there, how many players have gone completely unrecognised simply because, as fortune would have it, they never got the same kind of chance. After all, had Tottenham signed Welbeck that summer, the now-England captain probably would have spent Pochettino’s first season out on loan once again, adding to his incredibly modest haul of just 14 goals in 56 games during temporary spells elsewhere.
Maybe Kane’s undeniable talent would have eventually shone through, delaying rather than diverting his current trajectory, but maybe it wouldn’t have.
Maybe he would have become just any old forward, not particularly quick, powerful or deadly, aimlessly floating around the Football League. There must be countless failed academy graduates out there with the talent to do what Kane has gone on to achieve, only for circumstances to not allow and opportunities to not present themselves at the key moments.
But the same applies for Welbeck too, because moving to Tottenham could have equally seen his career pan out incredibly differently.
For starters, Welbeck’s injury problems only really began when he moved to Arsenal – 21 games missed previously compared to 83 absent in just four seasons with the Gunners – and the club’s constant problems with fitness during Arsene Wenger’s era suggests that’s no coincidence.
More pertinently than that though, Pochettino has proved himself to be one of the finest developers of talent in European football, Kane himself being testament. Back in 2014, Welbeck was just 23, fantastically hardworking, versatile and adaptable – he would have been perfect for Pochettino’s energetic style of football, and the manner in which he puts faith in hungry young players.
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And that all combines to make the end of the summer 2014 transfer window Welbeck and Kane’s sliding doors moment.
In a parallel universe, under slightly different circumstances with different choices made, maybe Welbeck has spent the last few years topping the Premier League’s scoring charts, maybe Welbeck cost Pochettino his job and halted the club’s impressive rise under the Argentine, maybe Kane never became anything more than a carbon copy of Patrick Bamford.
The margins at the very top of modern football are often so delicately fine; who knows how much world-class talent has fallen by the wayside as a consequence.